Hambletonian and ‘Oaks’ single contests with heavy favorites

After returning to the elim-heat format, where colts race more than once on the first Saturday in August to earn a berth in the Hambletonian final, the main event is forced into a single heat with only 11 colts dropping into the box. This is not much of a surprise, considering the presence of Jimmy Takter’s dominating colt, Father Patrick. As well, Takter’s Trixton and Nuncio are on board. That may be a triptych into history for team Takter. It is certainly enough horse power to have made the decisions of many colts’ connections to stay out of the race.

Some of the colts that have decided to show up for the $1,006,125 race are surprise entries considering their histories this season. This could make for fascinating results in the exotics, even with the mighty Takter trio.

The Hambletonian Oaks will go as a single mile as usual, though the soph-filly division has also been dominated by a Tatker terror—Shake It Cerry.

Below is a horse-by-horse analysis and suggested wagering elements for the events.

HAMBLETONIAN No. 89 FINAL
(In post position order)

Resolve
One of the surprises, this son of Muscle Hill has done well in seven starts as a soph and came close to Nuncio recently but has only a wild chance of finding the circumstances to win.

JJ Alex
It must be a thrill for his connections to be a part of this field and that is where the thrills will end, for he has only won his maiden at two and been cashing a few place and show checks racing agains far less competition. He is another of the surprise participants.

Doncango
Having the season of a lifetime, Ake Svanstedt found a way to be a part of the main event by using this lightly raced son of Donato Hanover as his ticket. The colt has only raced once as a sophomore and perhaps has no idea of the strength outside of him, no less that he is a character in an historic event. He is the third surprise entry.

Datsyuk
This guy has been competitive, cashed checks and shown a lot of spunk against the division’s top tier but he has never truly threatened Takter’s best. He has chased Nuncio and Father Patrick to the wire, picking up seconds but never showing the ability to thwart their power.

Nuncio
When Father Patrick isn’t in the mix, Nuncio commands the field. We found this guy before Takter had him, when he surprised everyone trotting second to Father Patrick in the Breeders Crown elim (a great exacta) and final (an okay exacta). He may only inherit a win, based on dire, unforeseen trouble besetting “Patrick.”

Royal Ice
Trond Smedshammer brings to the cast a colt hardly noticed along the Hambletonian Trail, having broken his maiden this season and doing little else. Hardly raced at two, he is the biggest surprise to show up.

Trixton
His only chance to beat his training partner Patrick was a third with trainer Takter driving, as Jimmy is scheduled to do in this mile. Regardless of any changes from that race to this, Jimmy needs to somehow out-gun his best, who we are coming to shortly. Certainly he can upset Patrick but again, extreme duress must fall upon his most dangerous foe.

Il Sogno Dream
He has come along nicely since we supported him at huge odds—we had him second at 18-1 to Trixton four back and he has improved since. Though he is not a terrific surprise to drop into the box, we thought he might pass to find an easier spot to win some money against glamour-boy trotters. Too bad there aren’t elim heats because he may do much better trying to get to the final than racing in it.

Harper Blue Chip
He went back to Canada to swipe the division from his Ontario group and did so easily because he was successfully active against the top tier here. We expected him in this group but don’t ponder a major threat without you-know-who getting into an unpredictable circumstance.

Father Patrick
Great horses overcome adversity. This is a great horse and he has already shown he can make up for inner-mile mayhem. Last year he had a strange shakeup in the stretch, losing enough ground to allow any horse to falter but he came back, made up the surrendered ground and won. At three he is untouchable. So what about the 10 hole is adverse? We don’t know and we cannot concoct a scenario where it makes so much of a difference that this monstrous trotter that continues to trounce his competition, loses this historic mile. Takter was visibly disappointed about getting post 10 but he handled it like a pro when interviewed. But in his heart of hearts he must know that what I and others are writing about this super colt is true, meaning Father Patrick has many more ways to win this regardless of where he leaves the gate.

Don Dorado
From tier two, this colt will have a built-in cover spot but the rail horse is not likely to leave quickly enough to make it worthy of the trip. This guy has a lot of potential and we thought he would be much better by now but he has not shown the super stuff necessary to make Father Patrick break a sweat. He may develop as the season ensues and certainly may mature enough to be a strong older trotter but it is highly unlikely we will be seeing him parade back to the winner's circle in this dance.

HAMBLETONIAN OAKS No 89 FINAL
(In post position order)

Designed To Be
This the only filly to beat Shake It Cerry this season and she did it when “Cerry” had a tough, outside push early, still finishing second. After that, the public turned on Cerry, a bad move, and this daughter of Donato Hanover disappointed supporters making her the favorite twice because has not been able to shake Cerry down again. She will be bet hard, though, as one of the top choices.

Cee Bee Yes
Since winning at Yonkers she has not gone well enough on the mile oval to be taken seriously, going off at 40-1 in the Oaks prep, where we thought she could show some toughness. In the “Miller” she was also a pawn for Cerry.

Vanity Matters
She will have to look at the rest of the season to improve because she is out of her league here. Here trainer is great and always sends his stock out to compete but she will be lucky to get a check among the best in the division.

Harley Momma
She has had her problems and may be coming around to racing as well as she did before her injury but the Oaks is a long reach for a filly that has only won a single race after her maiden and did so against far less than these.

Take The Money
A promising contender that would have three-straight wins in top company coming into this race were it not for a bad break on the lead at Pocono two back. Trainer Julie Miller has every right to aim at Cerry here and with husband Andy on the mend and off the bike, using Dave Palone makes plenty of sense with this prospect.

Tweet Me
No wins against any in the division leave this gal out in the cold. She picks up some checks but is in no way a threat here.

Lifetime Pursuit
Stuck in the shadow of Cerry in the Takter barn, this filly has been somewhat disappointing and has not been able to keep up with the better in the crop.

Heaven’s Door
Another Ake student, this one shows talent but is unable to make a mark large enough to take her as seriously as others. In exotics she makes sense but under any other circumstances she must look to be an upset.

Cooler Schooner
Scratched sick last week, this filly was waiting for a good spot to really show her stuff but is she well enough to make noise in the big feature? As an exotic partner she may have merit but she isn’t looking like she can beat the best.

Nitro Nittany
She has a very good record but she has not shown the kind of talent that makes her any kind of contender here. As well, she has the far outside to contend with while handling the kind of class she doesn’t seem able to join.

Shake It Cerry
From the second tier, the best of the bunch may once again be the second choice and that could mean we get still another great price on her. She towers over all of these and whether she controls the fractions or slams on the accelerator she takes them all for loops every time. This may be a good spot for her to stalk Designed To Be when that one leaves until her marauder move or she may take over early on and ask them to catch her. Either way, she shines and should add this classic to her classy resume.

One more edition of the Hambletonian Trail blog will be published for 2014. TwinSpires and the Hambletonian Society will then start the Breeders Crown Countdown, featuring coverage of races with BC-eligible division members that warrant wagering consideration.

Hopefuls contest in late-season preps

With two weeks until the Hambletonian and one week until the Hambletonian Oaks eliminations, the “Trail” has entered crunch time. Hopefuls will compete on Saturday, July 19 in the Reynolds Memorial at the Meadowlands and the Canadian Breeders Championships at Mohawk.

Since the Reynolds for the fillies only attracted four, it will be run as an exhibition race. The male equivalent saw 22 drop into the box, dividing into two divisions on the pari-mutual card.

Nuncio, entering off a runner-up finish to Father Patrick in the Stanley Dancer last week, highlights the opening split. While he is the fiercest competitor in this split, Southwind Poseidon has been improving with every outing. Coming in off of back-to-back victories, he may not be able to defeat Nuncio, but he’ll certainly be in the mix. Uva Hanover, one of the nine hopefuls in this event, could also get involved.

The other episode is a Hambo-hopeful free for all, with all 11 staked to the trotting classic. Other than the match-up of Trixton and Truxton, don’t discount Datsyuk from the second-tier. Trailing Mister B’s Way, who frequently shows speed, Datsyuk should get an easy trip and provide value.

Both genders of sophomore trotters will compete in finals for the Canadian Breeders Championship. The colt final features eligibles Entranced and Harper Blue Chip, with Harper Blue Chip looking near unbeatable off of a victory in the elimination.

Margie is the lone hopeful in the filly final. While she barely made the final, Flexible Woman could be a live long shot. She was victorious on this track against Grassroots competition a few weeks back and came into the eliminations off of an impressive fourth-place closing effort at Grand River. Being locked at the pylons in the elim and caught behind a fading leader, watch out for this filly as she seeks redemption at a price.

Keep watching the Hambletonian Trail blog for updates and races involving eligibles through July and for live coverage from TwinSpires on Hambletonian day. Read race results at the special section archived at the Hambletonian Society web site.

Pocono presents filly stakes

Wednesday, June 18 “Oaks” eligibles battle in two Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS) at Pocono Downs.

Nine gals take to the gate for the first division, worth $98,100. Only three in the field are not aimed for August.

Donatella Hanover is a Jimmy Takter student that has taken a back seat to the herd of successful hopefuls coming from his barn. She has been a fan choice and failed three times this season and won only once. Still, she cannot be dismissed here. As well as coming to Pocono for the first time this season, she is well placed here and may revert to showing early foot against this bunch, as she has been out-paced at the Meadowlands, Meadows and Philadelphia recently. As well, even with the Takter brand, she will offer a good price.

Another $98,100 is on the line in the second PASS for femmes. The only way to describe this mile is to compare five eligibles and two non-eligibles to one filly. That reads: a field of eight verses Shake It Cerry.

One of the reasons Donatella Hanover is not a talked-about Takter homey is Shake It Cerry. She is three for three so far and on a path to make Bee A Magician’s champion 2013 season look less than spectacular. “Shake” is seamless in her gait and when she at last lets out the speed, she will prove to be faster than “Bee.”

So, what does this field have to offer her in the way of competition? If you find out, email us at TwinSpires and we will take your opinion into consideration. In the meantime, Team Takter’s accountant should take out his black-ink pen for another positive entry because this purse money is a wad he or she can take to the back, literally.

Don’t be surprised, by the way, if Lifetime Dream wakes up enough to make this a Takter exacta.

Keep watching the Hambletonian Trail blog for updates and races involving eligibles through July and for live coverage from TwinSpires on Hambletonian day. Read race results at the special section archived at the Hambletonian Society web site.

Philly for fillies and Jersey for boys

Thursday, May 8, “Oaks”-eligibles take a shot at big purses in the Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS) for sophomore filly trotters at Harrah’s Philadelphia. Then, on Friday, May 9, the John Simpson Memorial for soph-colt trotters is a betting affair at the Meadowlands (a “Simpson” filly mile with a field of three is a non-betting feature.

The first of three splits ($74,132) presents only three eligible fillies, Silent Opera K, Designed To Be and Vanity Matters from a field of seven. “Silent” is coming off of two good late-closers at the Meadows, while the other two have not raced since the 2013 Breeders Crown, in which they both broke in eliminations. Those two are the probable favorites and we like “Vanity” best, hoping for a second-choice price.

The next PASS split ($73,732) has only two eligibles, Donatella Hanover (the probable favorite) and Raging Sea, in a field of six. Raging Sea is lightly raced and deserves support. She may not get a lot of action, making her more appetizing. If she is much better an shows it, you will be getting a price on her that will be difficult to come by again soon.

Finally, another $74,132 division has only one ineligible in seven on the gate. Expect Take The Money to take the bulk of the bets, as she is on a winning skein at three. But Noon Tea Party and Bikini So Teeny should have a say in this, with “Noon” the fresh face as a soph and a record that puts her second a few times to top-rated Shake It Cerry. The three mentioned could, in fact, be the stars of the trifecta in any particular order.

May 9 at The Meadowlands brings out the colts in a $51,543 Simpson stake. Eleven battle on the two-turn mile with seven eligibles for the Hambletonian.

We like the chances for Deweykeepumnwhy to win and hope that Well Built, who broke in the Dexter Cup prep as the big favorite, once again woos the crowd. “Dewey” debuts at three in this event. He appears to have the speed of his Hambo-winning sire and a tactical ability as well, having come from behind strongly at two from outside posts. He has qualified well and is in the perfect spot to command this group. Flyhawk El Durado, also an eligible, will negotiate the distance from post 9 but has the class to make noise late. And Trixton, another from the soph crop of Muscle Hill, has every right to improve and may be around for a piece of the trifecta late.

Keep watching the Hambletonian Trail blog for updates and races involving eligibles through July and for live coverage from TwinSpires on Hambletonian day. Read race results at the special section archived at the Hambletonian Society web site.

Soph contenders abound

The Hudson Filly Trot, Grand Circuit Reynolds stakes and a slew of Pennsylvania All Stars (PAAS) events adorn the first weekend in July at three tracks with different sizes hosting hopefuls for August classics.

Yonkers hosts the $155,624 Hudson Filly Trot for the soph gals on July 6, with eight behind the gate, half of them eligibles.

Lady Broadway has been going great guns but is ineligible to the big dance and will have do deal with the freshness of one eligible as her main threat. The Kadabra soph, Cha Cha Magic, makes only her fourth start and has one second and a sharp aim at August. Trainer Staffan Lind’s ticket to the “Oaks” gets the best post and should offer a big price. She is one of the progeny of Kadabra, who has sent out female champs like this year’s Bee A Magician.

PAAS colt trotters start off another big Saturday program at Pocono Downs, July 6. The purses for these events are $30,000 each. Race one looks like a battle between Brew Master and Maxamillus, with only the former an eligible. Brew Master is in top form now and is at the level of this group, though his recent win was among cheaper types.

Round two of five for the colts has seven eligibles in eight, with another shot for Aperfectyankee. Staying flat is all he needs, as he seems to tower over the others and with morning-line choice Tigress’s Legacy on the outside, Aperfectyankee could put in his best soph performance yet.

In the third PAAS split we have two possibilities, the obvious and the wild card. The former is Bluto, who has raced with better and should be a dead-on favorite. But the non-eligible Classicality could fool some folks, having won at a fair in slow time on a good track last out. We find it a positive that driver Dave Palone becomes the guide for Walter Dunn’s local trotter who Brian Zendt has been handling well among state-breds. If he upset this group it would be no surprise to us but may be a surprise to bettors.

The penultimate colt PAAS presents only one eligible, our choice, High Bridge. Coming from a second in the “Beal” he should be ready to take on this field, a group that has not seen the likes of the first tier in the division.

Finally, All Laid Out is here after winning the Beal consolation. With Palone up the odds will dip but we will go with Boffin, also an eligible, who will offer odds higher than his chances. He was third to All Laid Out last week and has put in some good races with excuses.

On July 5 the Grand Circuit’s W.R. Reynolds stakes for filly and colt trotters are part of the weekend Meadowlands stakes menu.

In the first filly contest, we like Ma Cherie Hall, who returned as a soph in top form. This classy lass may not be overlooked but she is too hot to dismiss. In round two for the gals, we like the outsider Raring To Go S, an eligible with two wins in three starts that can make trouble for the two big favorites, Mistery Woman and To Dream On.

More than $50,000 is on the line in the only Reynolds colt split, featuring five eligibles. We like Banco Solo again. His Pocono races were good with larger fields. This small and lightweight group may be easier to command, especially with two turns.

The Hambletonian Society has owned and serviced the Hambletonian since its inception in 1926 and presents the 88th edition at the Meadowlands, where it has been staged since 1981, There are no supplemental entries permitted in the Hambletonian and Oaks, nor are participants allowed to race on Lasix or Butazolidin. Along with the four juvenile Breeders Cup races for thoroughbreds, they are the only events in North American horse racing that prohibit the use of any race-day medication.

Keep watching this blog for updates and races involving eligibles through July and for live coverage from TwinSpires on Hambletonian day. Read race results at the special section archived at the Hambletonian Society web site.