Hambletonian and ‘Oaks’ single contests with heavy favorites

After returning to the elim-heat format, where colts race more than once on the first Saturday in August to earn a berth in the Hambletonian final, the main event is forced into a single heat with only 11 colts dropping into the box. This is not much of a surprise, considering the presence of Jimmy Takter’s dominating colt, Father Patrick. As well, Takter’s Trixton and Nuncio are on board. That may be a triptych into history for team Takter. It is certainly enough horse power to have made the decisions of many colts’ connections to stay out of the race.

Some of the colts that have decided to show up for the $1,006,125 race are surprise entries considering their histories this season. This could make for fascinating results in the exotics, even with the mighty Takter trio.

The Hambletonian Oaks will go as a single mile as usual, though the soph-filly division has also been dominated by a Tatker terror—Shake It Cerry.

Below is a horse-by-horse analysis and suggested wagering elements for the events.

HAMBLETONIAN No. 89 FINAL
(In post position order)

Resolve
One of the surprises, this son of Muscle Hill has done well in seven starts as a soph and came close to Nuncio recently but has only a wild chance of finding the circumstances to win.

JJ Alex
It must be a thrill for his connections to be a part of this field and that is where the thrills will end, for he has only won his maiden at two and been cashing a few place and show checks racing agains far less competition. He is another of the surprise participants.

Doncango
Having the season of a lifetime, Ake Svanstedt found a way to be a part of the main event by using this lightly raced son of Donato Hanover as his ticket. The colt has only raced once as a sophomore and perhaps has no idea of the strength outside of him, no less that he is a character in an historic event. He is the third surprise entry.

Datsyuk
This guy has been competitive, cashed checks and shown a lot of spunk against the division’s top tier but he has never truly threatened Takter’s best. He has chased Nuncio and Father Patrick to the wire, picking up seconds but never showing the ability to thwart their power.

Nuncio
When Father Patrick isn’t in the mix, Nuncio commands the field. We found this guy before Takter had him, when he surprised everyone trotting second to Father Patrick in the Breeders Crown elim (a great exacta) and final (an okay exacta). He may only inherit a win, based on dire, unforeseen trouble besetting “Patrick.”

Royal Ice
Trond Smedshammer brings to the cast a colt hardly noticed along the Hambletonian Trail, having broken his maiden this season and doing little else. Hardly raced at two, he is the biggest surprise to show up.

Trixton
His only chance to beat his training partner Patrick was a third with trainer Takter driving, as Jimmy is scheduled to do in this mile. Regardless of any changes from that race to this, Jimmy needs to somehow out-gun his best, who we are coming to shortly. Certainly he can upset Patrick but again, extreme duress must fall upon his most dangerous foe.

Il Sogno Dream
He has come along nicely since we supported him at huge odds—we had him second at 18-1 to Trixton four back and he has improved since. Though he is not a terrific surprise to drop into the box, we thought he might pass to find an easier spot to win some money against glamour-boy trotters. Too bad there aren’t elim heats because he may do much better trying to get to the final than racing in it.

Harper Blue Chip
He went back to Canada to swipe the division from his Ontario group and did so easily because he was successfully active against the top tier here. We expected him in this group but don’t ponder a major threat without you-know-who getting into an unpredictable circumstance.

Father Patrick
Great horses overcome adversity. This is a great horse and he has already shown he can make up for inner-mile mayhem. Last year he had a strange shakeup in the stretch, losing enough ground to allow any horse to falter but he came back, made up the surrendered ground and won. At three he is untouchable. So what about the 10 hole is adverse? We don’t know and we cannot concoct a scenario where it makes so much of a difference that this monstrous trotter that continues to trounce his competition, loses this historic mile. Takter was visibly disappointed about getting post 10 but he handled it like a pro when interviewed. But in his heart of hearts he must know that what I and others are writing about this super colt is true, meaning Father Patrick has many more ways to win this regardless of where he leaves the gate.

Don Dorado
From tier two, this colt will have a built-in cover spot but the rail horse is not likely to leave quickly enough to make it worthy of the trip. This guy has a lot of potential and we thought he would be much better by now but he has not shown the super stuff necessary to make Father Patrick break a sweat. He may develop as the season ensues and certainly may mature enough to be a strong older trotter but it is highly unlikely we will be seeing him parade back to the winner's circle in this dance.

HAMBLETONIAN OAKS No 89 FINAL
(In post position order)

Designed To Be
This the only filly to beat Shake It Cerry this season and she did it when “Cerry” had a tough, outside push early, still finishing second. After that, the public turned on Cerry, a bad move, and this daughter of Donato Hanover disappointed supporters making her the favorite twice because has not been able to shake Cerry down again. She will be bet hard, though, as one of the top choices.

Cee Bee Yes
Since winning at Yonkers she has not gone well enough on the mile oval to be taken seriously, going off at 40-1 in the Oaks prep, where we thought she could show some toughness. In the “Miller” she was also a pawn for Cerry.

Vanity Matters
She will have to look at the rest of the season to improve because she is out of her league here. Here trainer is great and always sends his stock out to compete but she will be lucky to get a check among the best in the division.

Harley Momma
She has had her problems and may be coming around to racing as well as she did before her injury but the Oaks is a long reach for a filly that has only won a single race after her maiden and did so against far less than these.

Take The Money
A promising contender that would have three-straight wins in top company coming into this race were it not for a bad break on the lead at Pocono two back. Trainer Julie Miller has every right to aim at Cerry here and with husband Andy on the mend and off the bike, using Dave Palone makes plenty of sense with this prospect.

Tweet Me
No wins against any in the division leave this gal out in the cold. She picks up some checks but is in no way a threat here.

Lifetime Pursuit
Stuck in the shadow of Cerry in the Takter barn, this filly has been somewhat disappointing and has not been able to keep up with the better in the crop.

Heaven’s Door
Another Ake student, this one shows talent but is unable to make a mark large enough to take her as seriously as others. In exotics she makes sense but under any other circumstances she must look to be an upset.

Cooler Schooner
Scratched sick last week, this filly was waiting for a good spot to really show her stuff but is she well enough to make noise in the big feature? As an exotic partner she may have merit but she isn’t looking like she can beat the best.

Nitro Nittany
She has a very good record but she has not shown the kind of talent that makes her any kind of contender here. As well, she has the far outside to contend with while handling the kind of class she doesn’t seem able to join.

Shake It Cerry
From the second tier, the best of the bunch may once again be the second choice and that could mean we get still another great price on her. She towers over all of these and whether she controls the fractions or slams on the accelerator she takes them all for loops every time. This may be a good spot for her to stalk Designed To Be when that one leaves until her marauder move or she may take over early on and ask them to catch her. Either way, she shines and should add this classic to her classy resume.

One more edition of the Hambletonian Trail blog will be published for 2014. TwinSpires and the Hambletonian Society will then start the Breeders Crown Countdown, featuring coverage of races with BC-eligible division members that warrant wagering consideration.

All Stars highlight prep week

While many hopefuls are sidelined for the Stanley Dancer Memorial next week, others will contest in three splits of the $90,000 Pennsylvania All-Stars (PAAS) at Pocono Downs on Saturday, July 5.

The opening split has a trio of eligibles in Paparazzi, Outburst and Jj Alex. While Outburst will take money due to competing against Father Patrick in the Earl Beal last week, Jett Star will likely be ignored. He too competed against Father Patrick but it was in splits of the Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS). When competing against easier company, for example: non-winners of three, he raced competitively and won easily. With the right trip, he could out-trot this field at a price.

The middle division has a sextet of hopefuls with Sarcastic Man, Kapow Hanover, Amped Up Hanover, Stretch Cunningham, Truxton and Another Transcript. The first of the six, Sarcastic Man, was an early standout based on his performance in the Dexter Cup elimination, winning at 12-1 in 1:59.2. Since then, he’s had difficulty competing in the big leagues. He drew into a weaker division, which makes this week his best chance to rebound.

The closing episode features hopefuls Journey, Il Sogno Dream and Uva Hanover. The median of the trio enters off of back-to-back runner-up efforts in the Goodtimes; back class that will make him among the public’s top choices. To his flank is another dangerous rival, Dony Andreas. He’s an opportunist colt; he races his best from the pocket. He has the speed to get his perfect trip and is in against a company where he can surpass rivals through the passing lane. 

PA and NY events on Sunday; Colts make their bids in the ‘Beal’ deal

Buffalo Raceway will contest two divisions of the $122,600 New York Sires Stakes (NYSS) for colt trotters on the afternoon of Sunday, June 29. A quintet of Hambo hopefuls will continue their journey towards the first Saturday in August on the half-mile oval in Hamburg.

Mister Anson and Expressive Action are the lone eligibles in the premier episode, contesting against six other Empire-bred trotters. While Expressive Action will be one of the favorites, be on the lookout for Daley Lovin. He was aggressive in the last splits of NYSS at Saratoga, taking command on lap two and dueling towards three-quarters. He might be fitting for the half-mile game to be played this afternoon.

The other split features three hopefuls with Karets, Rocky De Vie and Flyhawk El Durado. Flyhawk El Durado, drawing post eight, has the speed to get into contention, even though his speed could not withstand the pressure of Gural Hanover, who starts from post six. With a tactical steer, Flyhawk El Durado could put up a fight with the likely favorite, even though he is the logical second choice. 

PA All-Stars events adorn the June 29 program at Pocono. Shake It Cerry comes back in the third of three episodes for filly trotters and we like her again. She is just too good to ignore at any time, though her price offerings are minuscule, at best.

The event's first split seems to belong to Broadway Socks. She is sharp right now and has it over this field. Again, price will be an issue if you make it one.

Finally Lifetime Pursuit dominates the second split, so key her and land an exotic or two, as upsets in this trio appear slim to none. 

The Earl Beal, Jr. Final has turned into a very big deal for soph-colt trotters, especially those en route to the August classic. The “Beal” is worth a half-million dollars and that has earned it a major spot on the Hambletonian Trail. Since its inception, however, for various reasons none of its winners have gone on to victory in the Hambo.

Dejarmbo won the first; he was not eligible for the Hambo. Googoo Gaagaa won the second; he had a pacing sire so he was not eligible for the Hambo; and Corky got into the Hambo final but finished third to Royalty For Life.

This year’s Beal presents nine giants of the division to date, including the season’s first meeting between the Jimmy Takter duo Father Patrick and Nuncio (his other colt giant, Trixton, is not here). At two, Nuncio was trained by Jim Oscarsson and was second best to “Patrick” in the Breeders Crown elim (which we supported on these blogs) and final.

Also present in the Beal due to strong elim action are a few colts that may become challenges to Takter’s duo, though the domination of Patrick seems undaunted. Here are some comments on the rest of the field:

Amped Up Hanover
The Ron Burke trainee is the least of Takter’s worries. Even with the inside post and the passing lane this guy needs the front to collapse for a path to the finish line, much like Domethatagain received last week at Pocono to beat Captaintreacherous.

Harper Blue Chip
This guy is improving and seems fearless, two elements that may mean he has not peaked. Those are dangerous qualities to have this time of the season as the dominant duo is at a peak (have we really seen the best of Patrick?).

Don Dorado
We have felt from the beginning of the season that if any colt was to build up enough steam to beat Patrick it would be this guy. He is getting better by the mile and when we see the best he has to offer at three it may be a major threat to Patrick (we already feel he will be better than Nuncio).

Outburst
Along with “Armed,” this guy has a lot to prove but trainer Noel Daley may be moving him along more slowly than what has shown in only four races that make him the member of the field with the least earnings at three.

Well Built
Some of his gait issues clouded the start of his season and now we are edgy about how well built his stride may be, so to speak. On a good day he is fast and strong but by comparison to Patrick and some others here Well Built presents second thoughts.

Datsyuk
Charlie Norris has never had a colt of this caliber and in another blend of crop this trotter may have been the top dog. But he has not shown the guts to topple the Takter team and he may have gotten as good as he will get.

Sumatra
Tom Fanning’s colt is getting some tough trips and bad posts, hampering most of his attempts to be a giant killer. He may have it in him because his Dexter Cup wins were impressive but he won’t get a chance to prove it nose to nose with bad posts and top-rated traffic.

On paper, Father Patrick is still the best but the Pocono oval can whip up a storm with a large hot field that presents adversity beyond repair in a single mile. A case in point is how Royalty For Life swept the Hambletonian heats but was humbled using his heat on the outside at Pocono in the Colonial.

The few scenarios that beat Father Patrick place any focus of upset upon Harper Blue Chip, Don Dorado and Sumatra, and that three will offer some hefty payoffs, probably in that order.

Keep watching the Hambletonian Trail blog for updates and races involving eligibles through July and for live coverage from TwinSpires on Hambletonian day. Read race results at the special section archived at the Hambletonian Society web site.

Goodtimes, PA sires stakes test colts, Buffalo fillies come out

Among the $2.4-million in stakes action on Mohawk’s premier stakes night, June 14, the Goodtimes Final features a few prominent sophomores who are striding well into the first Saturday in August. Half of the 10 for the $272,100 mile are eligible for the classic, including Flyhawk El Durado, Trixton, Il Sogno Dream, Speak The Truth and Harper Blue Chip.

Trixton heads into the final with a four-win streak, with the combined margin of victories 26 ½ lengths. The dominant performer from the Jimmy Takter barn deserves to be an odds-on favorite but that doesn’t necessarily mean he cannot lose.

One of his few challengers is Harper Blue Chip, who was the runner-up to Trixton in the second elimination. Making his soph debut, he coasted around the oval, residing 4 lengths off of Trixton at the finish. Since he has a start under his belt, the Ontario Sires Stakes champion should give a better effort, especially since the big money is on the line.

Trixton’s other rival is Il Sogno Dream, who was the runner-up to Flyhawk El Durado, the winner of the first elimination. Adding hopples last start, he sat an easy trip and gave pursuit to Flyhawk El Durado once given room in the stretch, coming only ¾ lengths short of victory. While Trixton will be a tougher challenger, an easy trip and second start over the track should equal an improving horse. 

At Pocono the same night, more colts battle in three divisions of the Pennsylvania Sires Stakes, with purses of $73,000-plus each.

Three hopefuls go in round one, with our support for DD’s Hitman intact. He is ready to cash a win after two starts and one third and in a good spot from post 3 to beat the obvious choice, Amped Up Hanover. The other eligible is JJ Alex.

In the second of the trio, we will seek Nuncio’s defeat for the value probably offered Don Dorado. He is improving every race and seems ready to make it known he is around to stay on the journey to August.

There is nothing to say about division three but Father Patrick.

New York-bred gals are set to contest in the $118,200 New York Sires Stakes (NYSS) on Sunday, June 15 at Buffalo Raceway. Four "Oaks"-hopeful fillies will square off against eight others in two $59,100 divisions.

Division one features two eligibles, Glowngold and Beauty Of Gray. The latter of the two could be value in this field of six, having experience over a half-mile oval. She also raced well in the Empire Breeders Classic. Looking back to the end of her frosh campaign, she traveled first over against the best in the NYSS final, faltering slightly. She has two starts under her belt, which could be a sign that she’s ready to strike.

The other division consists of two hopefuls, Market Rally, who is the NYSS frosh champion, and Gammy’s Girl. While Market Rally is among the top contenders in this race, don’t overlook Keep The Cash. She heads into this race winning her last three races, one being at Western Fair (a 20-length recovery from a break). She is making her way up the class ladder and could be up to the challenge these gals will present. 

Keep watching the Hambletonian Trail blog for updates and races involving eligibles through July and for live coverage from TwinSpires on Hambletonian day. Read race results at the special section archived at the Hambletonian Society web site.

Goodtimes will be had by colts

It’s time to head north, colts, because the Hambletonian Trail takes us to Mohawk for two weeks. First, the boys will battle in the Goodtimes elims on June 6. There are two divisions, each worth $30,000, and the best of these miles return next week for the final.

Four Hambletonian eligibles are included in the first field, with six just looking for some decent paydays. Certainly, Il Sogno Dream is yet to make the noise he is capable of making and there could be some problems getting loud enough to do so from post 9 but don’t count him out. His sires stakes effort two races back was an 8-hole journey at the Meadows and he was showing some muscle before breaking, which put him out of the contest. He qualified brilliantly afterwards. It’s always great to catch a winner before he or she reveals true talent to the majority of bettors. This could be one of them.

Of course Flyhawk El Dorado, who we liked from the start of the season, will have a lot to say about this affair, though his recent record will attract chalk players. The rest of the field looks like they will have to struggle, as Skates N Plates and Entranced, the other two hopefuls, look like they may get small shares on class alone.

In the second round for the Goodtimes boys, five eligible colts meet five others for berths in the final. And look who is here to guide them: Trixton. Jimmy Takter’s versatile son of Muscle Hill has been on fire, winning his recent three stakes with a total of 21-some-odd lengths. He has speed and he is not afraid to be a one-dimensional colt using it for all it is worth. If he were to be challenged here, two colts would take positions.

Harper Blue Chip has qualified twice and debuts his soph campaign from post 9 in this field. He should be a contender but we don’t know if he can open his soph season beating Trixton. On the other hand, Mister Bs Way may have what it takes to meet the first tier of talent en route to August. He is here and not at Vernon for the “Empire” finals because he broke in that elim and finished fourth as the even-money choice against tough stuff . He should wind up the best wager if you go against Trixton.

Keep watching the Hambletonian Trail blog for updates and races involving eligibles through July and for live coverage from TwinSpires on Hambletonian day. Read race results at the special section archived at the Hambletonian Society web site.

Yonkers presents colts on the half

July opens with colt trotters The July 1 $356,456 New York Sires Stakes (NYSS) for soph colts and geldings offers a quartet of contests at the New York half-mile track. 

 

The opening ($89,914) division includes Tirade Hanover, a winner earlier this season in his Empire Breeders Classic elim at Vernon. He is one of six non-eligibles going for the big purse. The two in play for Hambo action are Order By Keeper and our choice, Pine Credit. 

 

The second ($88,314) NYSS field finds one eligible, our choice, Explosive Action, in the mix with top-rated West Side Story. That one comes from off a big win at Georgian Downs. 

 

Monday's third ($88,314) state-bred event is led by Modest Prince , the Linda Toscano-trained colt who has hit the board in four of his five soph starts, winning for the first time this season at 50-1 in a Simpson at the Meadowlands. Against the locals here, Modest Prince is a no-brainer choice.

 

The final ($89,914) NYSS mile July 1 features red-hot eligible Jurgen Hanover, who started the season with seven wins in a row before failing in his elim for the Earl J. Beal Memorial at Pocono. Three other eligibles take to the cause: Prove Up, Twisted Pretzel and Jacks To Open. We will stick with Jurgen Hanover (perhaps a small trifecta with the three eligibles behind him?).

The Hambletonian Society has owned and serviced the Hambletonian since its inception in 1926 and presents the 88th edition at the Meadowlands, where it has been staged since 1981, There are no supplemental entries permitted in the Hambletonian and Oaks, nor are participants allowed to race on Lasix or Butazolidin. Along with the four juvenile Breeders Cup races for thoroughbreds, they are the only events in North American horse racing that prohibit the use of any race-day medication.

Keep watching this blog for updates and races involving eligibles through July and for live coverage from TwinSpires on Hambletonian day. Read race results at the special section archived at the Hambletonian Society web site.

 

‘Beale’ elims are colt-trot trials

Pocono Downs hosts three elims for the Earl Beale, Jr. Memorial on June 22 and the soph-colt trotters are set to sail on the speedy five-eighths oval for $25,000 per split.

In the first round, only one non-eligible takes flight. Sharp off two wins, eligible Dontyouforgetit won’t be lighting up the tote board after a pair of double-digit wins. But the favor of Aperfectyankee seems to be fading and that is good for his odds as he goes from post 5 in this octet of all eligibles.

Public opinion will be strong for Dontyouforgetit and Celebrity Maserati, giving Aperfectyankee far less respect than we would care to acknowledge. So he will be our choice.

The second elim gives us a chance to once again support Banco Solo. Last out he was only 9-2 and made that first soph outing into a check-cashing mile, finishing third. George Brennan is in town for the ride and that is nothing but a plus, along with odds that will be generous.

Corky will get support again but he has only been able to win a Historic event and should burn some money again, along with Royalty For Life, who comes into his second soph affair after a bad break in his first and a decent qualifier. Still, the crowd may pour some bucks on his behalf.

The third split is a great betting race. Top-rated Smilin Eli gets post 8 and win-streaking Jurgen Hanover is in the 6 hole, while a few guys inside of them are getting better and should be some value.

My Man Can had a horrendous trip last out from post 8 and when you toss that one he should be worth less than his morning line, so we can hope for 6-1 or up. Also, High Bridge has a very good soph record right now and has won on this track before with trainer Jimmy Takter up. Yannick Gingras rides for Takter in this and there would be no reason to be surprised if he gets all the luck in the three turns and wins.

The Hambletonian Society has owned and serviced the Hambletonian since its inception in 1926 and presents the 88th edition at the Meadowlands, where it has been staged since 1981, There are no supplemental entries permitted in the Hambletonian and Oaks, nor are participants allowed to race on Lasix or Butazolidin. Along with the four juvenile Breeders Cup races for thoroughbreds, they are the only events in North American horse racing that prohibit the use of any race-day medication.

Keep watching this blog for updates and races involving eligibles through July and for live coverage from TwinSpires on Hambletonian day. Read race results at the special section archived at the Hambletonian Society web site.