Hambletonian and ‘Oaks’ single contests with heavy favorites

After returning to the elim-heat format, where colts race more than once on the first Saturday in August to earn a berth in the Hambletonian final, the main event is forced into a single heat with only 11 colts dropping into the box. This is not much of a surprise, considering the presence of Jimmy Takter’s dominating colt, Father Patrick. As well, Takter’s Trixton and Nuncio are on board. That may be a triptych into history for team Takter. It is certainly enough horse power to have made the decisions of many colts’ connections to stay out of the race.

Some of the colts that have decided to show up for the $1,006,125 race are surprise entries considering their histories this season. This could make for fascinating results in the exotics, even with the mighty Takter trio.

The Hambletonian Oaks will go as a single mile as usual, though the soph-filly division has also been dominated by a Tatker terror—Shake It Cerry.

Below is a horse-by-horse analysis and suggested wagering elements for the events.

HAMBLETONIAN No. 89 FINAL
(In post position order)

Resolve
One of the surprises, this son of Muscle Hill has done well in seven starts as a soph and came close to Nuncio recently but has only a wild chance of finding the circumstances to win.

JJ Alex
It must be a thrill for his connections to be a part of this field and that is where the thrills will end, for he has only won his maiden at two and been cashing a few place and show checks racing agains far less competition. He is another of the surprise participants.

Doncango
Having the season of a lifetime, Ake Svanstedt found a way to be a part of the main event by using this lightly raced son of Donato Hanover as his ticket. The colt has only raced once as a sophomore and perhaps has no idea of the strength outside of him, no less that he is a character in an historic event. He is the third surprise entry.

Datsyuk
This guy has been competitive, cashed checks and shown a lot of spunk against the division’s top tier but he has never truly threatened Takter’s best. He has chased Nuncio and Father Patrick to the wire, picking up seconds but never showing the ability to thwart their power.

Nuncio
When Father Patrick isn’t in the mix, Nuncio commands the field. We found this guy before Takter had him, when he surprised everyone trotting second to Father Patrick in the Breeders Crown elim (a great exacta) and final (an okay exacta). He may only inherit a win, based on dire, unforeseen trouble besetting “Patrick.”

Royal Ice
Trond Smedshammer brings to the cast a colt hardly noticed along the Hambletonian Trail, having broken his maiden this season and doing little else. Hardly raced at two, he is the biggest surprise to show up.

Trixton
His only chance to beat his training partner Patrick was a third with trainer Takter driving, as Jimmy is scheduled to do in this mile. Regardless of any changes from that race to this, Jimmy needs to somehow out-gun his best, who we are coming to shortly. Certainly he can upset Patrick but again, extreme duress must fall upon his most dangerous foe.

Il Sogno Dream
He has come along nicely since we supported him at huge odds—we had him second at 18-1 to Trixton four back and he has improved since. Though he is not a terrific surprise to drop into the box, we thought he might pass to find an easier spot to win some money against glamour-boy trotters. Too bad there aren’t elim heats because he may do much better trying to get to the final than racing in it.

Harper Blue Chip
He went back to Canada to swipe the division from his Ontario group and did so easily because he was successfully active against the top tier here. We expected him in this group but don’t ponder a major threat without you-know-who getting into an unpredictable circumstance.

Father Patrick
Great horses overcome adversity. This is a great horse and he has already shown he can make up for inner-mile mayhem. Last year he had a strange shakeup in the stretch, losing enough ground to allow any horse to falter but he came back, made up the surrendered ground and won. At three he is untouchable. So what about the 10 hole is adverse? We don’t know and we cannot concoct a scenario where it makes so much of a difference that this monstrous trotter that continues to trounce his competition, loses this historic mile. Takter was visibly disappointed about getting post 10 but he handled it like a pro when interviewed. But in his heart of hearts he must know that what I and others are writing about this super colt is true, meaning Father Patrick has many more ways to win this regardless of where he leaves the gate.

Don Dorado
From tier two, this colt will have a built-in cover spot but the rail horse is not likely to leave quickly enough to make it worthy of the trip. This guy has a lot of potential and we thought he would be much better by now but he has not shown the super stuff necessary to make Father Patrick break a sweat. He may develop as the season ensues and certainly may mature enough to be a strong older trotter but it is highly unlikely we will be seeing him parade back to the winner's circle in this dance.

HAMBLETONIAN OAKS No 89 FINAL
(In post position order)

Designed To Be
This the only filly to beat Shake It Cerry this season and she did it when “Cerry” had a tough, outside push early, still finishing second. After that, the public turned on Cerry, a bad move, and this daughter of Donato Hanover disappointed supporters making her the favorite twice because has not been able to shake Cerry down again. She will be bet hard, though, as one of the top choices.

Cee Bee Yes
Since winning at Yonkers she has not gone well enough on the mile oval to be taken seriously, going off at 40-1 in the Oaks prep, where we thought she could show some toughness. In the “Miller” she was also a pawn for Cerry.

Vanity Matters
She will have to look at the rest of the season to improve because she is out of her league here. Here trainer is great and always sends his stock out to compete but she will be lucky to get a check among the best in the division.

Harley Momma
She has had her problems and may be coming around to racing as well as she did before her injury but the Oaks is a long reach for a filly that has only won a single race after her maiden and did so against far less than these.

Take The Money
A promising contender that would have three-straight wins in top company coming into this race were it not for a bad break on the lead at Pocono two back. Trainer Julie Miller has every right to aim at Cerry here and with husband Andy on the mend and off the bike, using Dave Palone makes plenty of sense with this prospect.

Tweet Me
No wins against any in the division leave this gal out in the cold. She picks up some checks but is in no way a threat here.

Lifetime Pursuit
Stuck in the shadow of Cerry in the Takter barn, this filly has been somewhat disappointing and has not been able to keep up with the better in the crop.

Heaven’s Door
Another Ake student, this one shows talent but is unable to make a mark large enough to take her as seriously as others. In exotics she makes sense but under any other circumstances she must look to be an upset.

Cooler Schooner
Scratched sick last week, this filly was waiting for a good spot to really show her stuff but is she well enough to make noise in the big feature? As an exotic partner she may have merit but she isn’t looking like she can beat the best.

Nitro Nittany
She has a very good record but she has not shown the kind of talent that makes her any kind of contender here. As well, she has the far outside to contend with while handling the kind of class she doesn’t seem able to join.

Shake It Cerry
From the second tier, the best of the bunch may once again be the second choice and that could mean we get still another great price on her. She towers over all of these and whether she controls the fractions or slams on the accelerator she takes them all for loops every time. This may be a good spot for her to stalk Designed To Be when that one leaves until her marauder move or she may take over early on and ask them to catch her. Either way, she shines and should add this classic to her classy resume.

One more edition of the Hambletonian Trail blog will be published for 2014. TwinSpires and the Hambletonian Society will then start the Breeders Crown Countdown, featuring coverage of races with BC-eligible division members that warrant wagering consideration.

Hambletonian Oaks sans elims, prep mile to final

The Hambletonian Oaks field is set and on July 26 at the Meadowlands a special prep event will be the last we will see of the field until Aug. 2 when the final is part of the stake-filled day’s program. As well, two colt divisions of the Arden Downs at the Meadows on July 26 have to be the deciding events for six eligibles’ connections whether or not to drop into the box for the main event.

The fillies go to the gate in the $35,000 prep and their prowess will be measured against the division’s best, Shake It Cerry. The grand filly is the Jimmy Takter heroine that may earn him both Hambo crowns. Though he also sends Lifetime Pursuit off in this affair, “Cerry” is the focus.

After her remarkable win at 7-2 last week when most bettors (not on our suggestion) let her go for the sake of Designed To Be (leaving from post 1 just in front of Cerry in this prep), it appears most people are convinced—as we continually remarked through the season thus far—that Cerry is the best.

We may be reiterating much of this prep analysis next week when it is time for the final but there is no way to wager against Cerry, who becomes a magnificent key for exotics only if we look deep into second-and-third candidates that will boost the price (hopefully a ton of bettors are not wheeling her).

Last week we liked Cooler Schooner to play the co-starring role but she broke early in the “Miller” and was eliminated. However, she went off at 13-1 and may go off longer in the prep. The other candidate is Cee Bee Yes. She has been highly under-rated while being competitive with the top tier of the division, so she should offer odds strong enough to help the exacta cause (she was 17-1 in the Miller, where she made two moves.

At the Meadows that afternoon, the first Arden Downs for the soph colts, worth $32,455, the eligible Sarcastic Man (one of three eligibles) leaves from the inside and is bound to offer a generous win price, much more than he should offer. On the outside, local hero Dave Palone will drive Stakes N Plates (eligible) and the crowd will swarm to support him. Sarcastic Man can be forgiven for his Reynolds loss (no colt was going to out-trot Nuncio) and his break in the PA All Stars, as well as his sires stakes loss in June at Pocono. He is a contender and the odds predicted make him the bet.

In round two, worth $32,855, Il Sogno Dream heads a trio of hopefuls, including Mister Bs Way and Amped Up Hanover. We were all over “Sogno” from his early soph campaign, capturing much of his six wins and four places for profit, including his second (19-1) to Trixton in the Goodtimes Final. He won’t offer much as a winner but as a key we still like him and we still think it possible he will go on Aug. 2. With him, take both of the other hopefuls, even though Mister Bs Way’s odds may suffer for having Palone along for the ride (still, he is 12-1 on the morning line). Amped Up Hanover has not logged into the win column much but is a tad better than the rest.

Keep watching the Hambletonian Trail blog for updates and races involving eligibles through July and for live coverage from TwinSpires on Hambletonian day. Read race results at the special section archived at the Hambletonian Society web site.

PA and NY events on Sunday; Colts make their bids in the ‘Beal’ deal

Buffalo Raceway will contest two divisions of the $122,600 New York Sires Stakes (NYSS) for colt trotters on the afternoon of Sunday, June 29. A quintet of Hambo hopefuls will continue their journey towards the first Saturday in August on the half-mile oval in Hamburg.

Mister Anson and Expressive Action are the lone eligibles in the premier episode, contesting against six other Empire-bred trotters. While Expressive Action will be one of the favorites, be on the lookout for Daley Lovin. He was aggressive in the last splits of NYSS at Saratoga, taking command on lap two and dueling towards three-quarters. He might be fitting for the half-mile game to be played this afternoon.

The other split features three hopefuls with Karets, Rocky De Vie and Flyhawk El Durado. Flyhawk El Durado, drawing post eight, has the speed to get into contention, even though his speed could not withstand the pressure of Gural Hanover, who starts from post six. With a tactical steer, Flyhawk El Durado could put up a fight with the likely favorite, even though he is the logical second choice. 

PA All-Stars events adorn the June 29 program at Pocono. Shake It Cerry comes back in the third of three episodes for filly trotters and we like her again. She is just too good to ignore at any time, though her price offerings are minuscule, at best.

The event's first split seems to belong to Broadway Socks. She is sharp right now and has it over this field. Again, price will be an issue if you make it one.

Finally Lifetime Pursuit dominates the second split, so key her and land an exotic or two, as upsets in this trio appear slim to none. 

The Earl Beal, Jr. Final has turned into a very big deal for soph-colt trotters, especially those en route to the August classic. The “Beal” is worth a half-million dollars and that has earned it a major spot on the Hambletonian Trail. Since its inception, however, for various reasons none of its winners have gone on to victory in the Hambo.

Dejarmbo won the first; he was not eligible for the Hambo. Googoo Gaagaa won the second; he had a pacing sire so he was not eligible for the Hambo; and Corky got into the Hambo final but finished third to Royalty For Life.

This year’s Beal presents nine giants of the division to date, including the season’s first meeting between the Jimmy Takter duo Father Patrick and Nuncio (his other colt giant, Trixton, is not here). At two, Nuncio was trained by Jim Oscarsson and was second best to “Patrick” in the Breeders Crown elim (which we supported on these blogs) and final.

Also present in the Beal due to strong elim action are a few colts that may become challenges to Takter’s duo, though the domination of Patrick seems undaunted. Here are some comments on the rest of the field:

Amped Up Hanover
The Ron Burke trainee is the least of Takter’s worries. Even with the inside post and the passing lane this guy needs the front to collapse for a path to the finish line, much like Domethatagain received last week at Pocono to beat Captaintreacherous.

Harper Blue Chip
This guy is improving and seems fearless, two elements that may mean he has not peaked. Those are dangerous qualities to have this time of the season as the dominant duo is at a peak (have we really seen the best of Patrick?).

Don Dorado
We have felt from the beginning of the season that if any colt was to build up enough steam to beat Patrick it would be this guy. He is getting better by the mile and when we see the best he has to offer at three it may be a major threat to Patrick (we already feel he will be better than Nuncio).

Outburst
Along with “Armed,” this guy has a lot to prove but trainer Noel Daley may be moving him along more slowly than what has shown in only four races that make him the member of the field with the least earnings at three.

Well Built
Some of his gait issues clouded the start of his season and now we are edgy about how well built his stride may be, so to speak. On a good day he is fast and strong but by comparison to Patrick and some others here Well Built presents second thoughts.

Datsyuk
Charlie Norris has never had a colt of this caliber and in another blend of crop this trotter may have been the top dog. But he has not shown the guts to topple the Takter team and he may have gotten as good as he will get.

Sumatra
Tom Fanning’s colt is getting some tough trips and bad posts, hampering most of his attempts to be a giant killer. He may have it in him because his Dexter Cup wins were impressive but he won’t get a chance to prove it nose to nose with bad posts and top-rated traffic.

On paper, Father Patrick is still the best but the Pocono oval can whip up a storm with a large hot field that presents adversity beyond repair in a single mile. A case in point is how Royalty For Life swept the Hambletonian heats but was humbled using his heat on the outside at Pocono in the Colonial.

The few scenarios that beat Father Patrick place any focus of upset upon Harper Blue Chip, Don Dorado and Sumatra, and that three will offer some hefty payoffs, probably in that order.

Keep watching the Hambletonian Trail blog for updates and races involving eligibles through July and for live coverage from TwinSpires on Hambletonian day. Read race results at the special section archived at the Hambletonian Society web site.

NY, Ontario, kick off stakes week

Preparation for the August classic is now beginning to reach full swing, with two divisions of the $124,800 New York Sires Stakes (NYSS) for fillies at Tioga Downs on Monday, June 23, and two divisions for colts of the Ontario Sires Stakes (ONSS) at Mohawk Racetrack on Tuesday, June 24.

The opening division of the NYSS features three hopefuls, Lindys Crazy Dolly, Slice Slice Baby and Glowngold. Yet, the interesting gal in this field is Maud Blue Chip. She makes her second start off of a month layoff, as well as her second start with Lasix. Since her debut was at Buffalo, it can be tossed out, since a half-mile oval may not be ideal for a return. She’ll start from post 5 and hopefully travel a better mile.

Market Rally highlights the second division, coming off an easy win against NYSS competition, the "Oaks" hopeful will likely take a majority of the wagering. The other eligible, Beauty Of Gray, appears to be her main threat, traveling first over to finish second in her NYSS division last week. She draws the rail, allowing her to go an easy mile to try and defeat the NYSS freshman champion.

Only one division of the ONSS features eligible colts. The duo in that division is comprised of Entranced and O Narutac Perfetto, who might be the best of the bunch in the second split. 

Pocono presents filly stakes

Wednesday, June 18 “Oaks” eligibles battle in two Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS) at Pocono Downs.

Nine gals take to the gate for the first division, worth $98,100. Only three in the field are not aimed for August.

Donatella Hanover is a Jimmy Takter student that has taken a back seat to the herd of successful hopefuls coming from his barn. She has been a fan choice and failed three times this season and won only once. Still, she cannot be dismissed here. As well as coming to Pocono for the first time this season, she is well placed here and may revert to showing early foot against this bunch, as she has been out-paced at the Meadowlands, Meadows and Philadelphia recently. As well, even with the Takter brand, she will offer a good price.

Another $98,100 is on the line in the second PASS for femmes. The only way to describe this mile is to compare five eligibles and two non-eligibles to one filly. That reads: a field of eight verses Shake It Cerry.

One of the reasons Donatella Hanover is not a talked-about Takter homey is Shake It Cerry. She is three for three so far and on a path to make Bee A Magician’s champion 2013 season look less than spectacular. “Shake” is seamless in her gait and when she at last lets out the speed, she will prove to be faster than “Bee.”

So, what does this field have to offer her in the way of competition? If you find out, email us at TwinSpires and we will take your opinion into consideration. In the meantime, Team Takter’s accountant should take out his black-ink pen for another positive entry because this purse money is a wad he or she can take to the back, literally.

Don’t be surprised, by the way, if Lifetime Dream wakes up enough to make this a Takter exacta.

Keep watching the Hambletonian Trail blog for updates and races involving eligibles through July and for live coverage from TwinSpires on Hambletonian day. Read race results at the special section archived at the Hambletonian Society web site.